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Free College Bowl Picks: Part I By Ron Jumper It’s the most wonderful time of the year…Bowl Season! Okay, I take that back. March Madness is the best time of the year but you can’t honestly tell me that Bowl Season doesn’t get you excited as well. The only thing that holds it back from becoming the most exciting time in sports is a simple little problem. As soon as the regular season ends, coaches start fleeing to different schools to take on bigger contracts at more prestigious schools.  The problem, for me, is that it makes a team’s postseason seem almost worthless with an interim head coach taking over just to pass the time until another coach has been hired. Or, in the case of Cincinnati, Head Coach Bryan Kelly will coach his new team in the International Bowl in Toronto. How can a guy come in and take a team he didn’t coach to play in their bowl game? If I’m a player, I can’t be happy about this. It is enough to ask just to get the players to stay and not transfer, but to have to play for him just a month after your old coach was fired? That has to be difficult. (Not to be sarcastic or anything, but I really don’t think it helps matters that the International Bowl is Canada. I just, for the life of me, can’t figure out any good reason to have a Bowl Game in Canada. If I live in Toronto, I’m probably a big hockey fan and will occasionally attend a Raptors or Argonauts game if there isn’t anything else to do. However, Canada has no reason to care whatsoever about NCAA football. It would be like Canada having the CFL Championship Game in Kansas City, MO. It just amazes me sometimes…) Another important part about the bowl games is representing your conference. For me, this is a season where the PAC-10 needs to perform well, especially in a couple of intriguing match-ups. Take the Oregon-BYU and Arizona State-Hawaii bowls, in both cases the PAC-10 team is the underdog! Granted, BYU and Hawaii have had excellent seasons in the MWC and WAC this season. However, if you are a big time BCS conference, these are games your conference should win. I thought of an analogy to make my point about the PAC-10 and how there might not be that big a talent gap between conferences like the MWC and WAC. I assume at this point you are looking at the screen with a confused look but stay with me. I’m going to use spades as my point of reference, starting with the Mountain West. Let’s say you decided to go blind neel, what is the next thing that happens? You get to trade your two best cards for your partners two worst cards, right? Imagine that the Mountain West traded San Diego State and UNLV, who are a combined 5-19 and fit geographically with the PAC-10, in return for USC and Cal. (Just a funny coincidence, but both blind neel and college football require you to prevail 13 times) Look at the new results: PAC-10 Oregon State 9-4 UCLA 7-5 Oregon 7-5 Arizona State 7-5 Arizona 6-6 Washington State 6-6 Washington 5-7 San Diego State 3-9 UNLV 2-10 Stanford 1-11 Mountain West USC 10-2 BYU 10-2 TCU 10-2 Cal 9-3 Utah 7-5 Wyoming 6-6 New Mexico 6-6 Air Force 4-8 Colorado State 4-8 Hmm… once you get past the top, the PAC-10 just doesn’t seem so high and mighty does it? Also, take into account that the bowl committee doesn’t give the PAC-10 much respect either. Take a look at the bowl match-ups and you will notice that 6-6 Arizona and 6-6 Washington State were not selected for a bowl game and New Mexico is hosting its own bowl at 6-6…interesting. There are plenty of 6-6 teams in other BCS Conferences that received bowl bids: Florida State, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Minnesota, Iowa, and Miami all received bids. I don’t know if PAC-10 teams have realized all of this or looked at it from the same perspective, but I would certainly have a chip on my shoulder. With no further delays, the picks… Regular Season College Football Record: 42-26-2 Regular Season Money Balance: $333.50 (+133.50) *Risk $11 to Win $10 on ALL Wagers* TCU (-11.5) covers vs. Northern Illinois Who to watch: QB Jeff Ballard, TCU RB Aaron Brown, TCU RB Garrett Wolfe, NIU The Horned Frogs are the superior team here. They are better at virtually every area of the game. The thing to focus on though is how dominant the Horned Frog defense is, especially against the run. They lead their conference in rush defense, pass efficiency, total defense, and points allowed. On the other hand, Northern Illinois has a scary playmaker in Garrett Wolfe, but no one can win by their self. As most of you know, Wolfe lead the nation in rushing during the regular season. However, he showed that he could be stopped if defenses keyed on him. Expect TCU to get ahead early and stay that way. TCU 31-10 Oregon (+4) covers vs. BYU Who to watch: QB John Beck, BYU QB Dennis Dixon, Oregon WR Jaison Williams, Oregon The Ducks, though they are an unimpressive 7-5, still have a lot of talent at their disposal. With the playmaking ability that Dennis Dixon can give you, Oregon can truly score on anyone. If you throw in WR Jaison Williams and RB Jonathon Stewart, you have an offense that should be too talented for BYU’s defense to handle. While from a statistical standpoint, BYU grades out pretty well. However, they just don’t have the same speed to match up on the edges to really slow down the Ducks. On the other side of the ball, John Beck is a very good quarterback. He will get BYU moving down the field against a somewhat suspect Oregon defense. Expect this one to be high scoring. Ducks 35-31 Rice (-5) covers vs. Troy Who to watch: RB Quinton Smith, Rice Wow, this game just does not have much to look forward to. Games like these are exactly why there shouldn’t be so many bowl games. I never thought I would see the day Rice was the favorite in a bowl game. What makes it even crazier is that I think they are going to win and do it convincingly. I like Troy and I generally pull for the Sun Belt, but there is no way the Sun Belt representative is going to come away victorious here. Rice, after a miserable start, has been playing really well and should be far superior to a lowly Sun Belt member. Rice 31-17 South Florida (-4) covers vs. East Carolina Who to watch: QB Matt Grothe, USF With everything all hunky dory in South Florida, expect a good outing from the Bulls. They have young weapons, but none the less they are weapons. Expect true freshman QB Matt Grothe to make a few mistakes, but then he will make some plays that cause you to forget all about the mistakes. Grothe hasn’t gotten much praise on a national level but he deserves to be talked about as a duel threat QB. East Carolina, while they do everything well, lack the speed and playmakers necessary to pull this one out. Expect Jim Leavitt to have his team well prepared and focused, after being discussed as a candidate for Alabama job. USF 24-17 New Mexico (-3.5) covers vs. San Jose State Who to watch: Yeah…I’m still looking This is a game that people need to keep simple. New Mexico is hosting its own bowl game. San Jose State is well…San Jose State. I know the Spartans are 8-4 but I can’t help but feel those weren’t the highest quality 8 wins. While New Mexico is no powerhouse, having a home game for a bowl is a HUGE advantage. Lobos 21-10 Tulsa (+1) covers vs. Utah Who to watch: QB Paul Smith, Tulsa FS Bobby Blackshire DB/QB/PR Eric Weddle, Utah While I am a Utah fan, I just like what Tulsa brings to the table. They have the ability to make big plays on offense, while Utah is more methodical. Utah lost a heartbreaker to close the season against BYU, expect some lingering effects. Tulsa is moving up the ranks in Conference USA and has shown in small doses the ability to play with anyone. It should be a close game regardless of the winner. Tulsa 22-21 Hawaii (-8) covers vs. Arizona State Who to watch: QB Colt Brennan, Hawaii Another game to keep real simple, Hawaii has this game at its own stadium. The Sun Devils were an unimpressive 7-5 in the PAC-10, with no real marquee victories to hang their hat on. Expect a superb outing from the Hawaii Warriors, who played a solid enough schedule to prove they can play with BCS conference teams. Hawaii 42-31 Middle Tennessee (+10) covers vs. Central Michigan Who to watch: RB Eugene Gross, MTU LB J.K. Sabb, MTU QB Dan LeFevour, CMU The Blue Raiders are a solid team that has been known to do the little things well. They have solid all-around special teams and a better-than-expected defense. However, the real reason this game will be closer than expected is the departure of their former head coach Bryan Kelly. The offense was his baby and it might not flow as well without him their to run things. In case you haven’t seen Central Michigan play this season, the offense is the only true strength they have. Expect this to be one of the more boring bowl games this season, but the Blue Raiders will keep the score within reach. CMU 21-19 Florida State (+4) covers vs. UCLA Who to watch: RB Lorenzo Booker, FSU DE Bruce Davis, UCLA DE Justin Hickman, UCLA In a very close match-up, I see this one being low scoring. The Bruins and Seminoles both have stingy defenses and erratic offenses to work with. As much as the Bruins pass rush will heart the Seminole attack, I see it ultimately being their doom. When pass rushers tee-off and rush the QB, what are the bad things that can happen? Screens and draws can kill you, which FSU loves to do with Lorenzo Booker. It should get very interesting down the stretch. FSU 16-14 Alabama (+2) covers vs. Oklahoma State Who to watch: WR D.J. Hall, Bama RB Kenneth Darby, Bama WR Adarius Bowman, OSU Why do I have Darby as a player to watch, you ask? Well he is the key to the whole game for the Crimson Tide. Joe Kines, the defensive coordinator, is serving as the interim head coach so their defense is going to be in good shape. On offense, expect Darby to get a lot of early touches to try to create balance and make it easier for the passing game. Darby should be able to do this because OSU hasn't stopped anyone this season. Some feel OSU will be able to score on Bama... I don't. Bama 17-16 Rutgers (-7.5) covers vs. Kansas State Who to watch: RB Ray Rice, Rutgers FB Brian Leonard, Rutgers DE Ian Campbell, KSU For Rutgers, the gameplan is real simple. They need to come out and take charge early by running the football. If they do that, it takes away KSU's strengths: their running game and the pass rush. DE Ian Campbell can't rush the passer if the Scarlet Knights don't have to pass. The Wildcats will struggle if they fall behind because they rely heavily on freshman QB Josh Freeman and he isn't the smoothest passer. Rutgers 31-14 Texas A&M (+5) covers vs. California Who to watch: DL Chris Harrington, TAM RB Marshawn Lynch, Cal WR DeSean Jackson, Cal The Aggies are a physical defense. Cal really doesn't like to play physical teams (see Tennessee and USC). However, the Aggies don't have an explosive enough offense to pull away in this one. For me, Cal gets the edge because of special teams. WR/PR DeSean Jackson will make the difference with big plays in more ways than one. Expect Cal to squeak out a close one. Cal 27-24 Clemson (-10) covers vs. Kentucky Who to watch: DE Gaines Adams, Clemson RB James Davis, Clemson QB Andre' Woodson, Kentucky As great as it is that Kentucky is in a bowl game, I don't see much that tells me they have a chance here. The Tigers RB duo of Davis and Spiller will be tough for the Wildcats defense. Expect Gaines Adams to be a nightmare for whoever has to block him on the edges. This could be ugly. Tigers 31-10 Missouri (+3) covers vs. Oregon State Who to watch: SS Sabey Piscitelli, OSU RB Yswenson Bernard, OSU QB Chase Daniel, Mizz First off, as great as it was that the Beavers beat USC, can't we all just be honest and admit it was a fluke of nature? This is the same team that was thumped 42-14 by Boise State. On the other hand, it isn't like Missouri finished the season on a roll. The key for me is QB Chase Daniel, he is simply the key to the Tigers success. When he plays well they are a pretty tough football team. Both teams are up and down, so the smart play here is the Tigers. Always take the better conference, which in this case is the Big 12 over the PAC-10. Tigers 28-27 December 18, 2006 |
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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