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Jumpology: Bracket Breakdown Part I
By Ron Jumper

With teams fighting to lock up a spot in March Madness, who is in and who is out? Who still has work to do and who needs a miracle to make postseason play? All that information is right here for your enjoyment. Everything is broken down by conference to keep things simple. Granted we still have a couple of weeks to go before Selection Sunday, I can’t help but get caught up in all the excitement of the NCAA Tournament.

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The first thing you have to do is take out the teams that should get automatic bids and the teams you know are locks for the tournament. Then you look at all the teams left with a shot and look at how many spots you have left to decide between them. Take into account factors like bad losses, quality wins, strength of schedule, and how well they have played down the stretch of the season. After that, we are going to look at what each team has left and what would seal their fate in March Madness.

Key:
AB = Automatic Bid
L = Lock
WTD = Work To Do

America East
Vermont (AB)

Atlantic 10
Xavier (AB)

ACC
UNC (AB)
Virginia Tech (L)
Virginia (L)
Boston College (L)
Duke (L)
Maryland (L)

Atlantic Sun
East Tennessee State (AB)

Big East
Georgetown (AB)
Pittsburgh (L)
Louisville (L)
Notre Dame (L)
Syracuse (L)
Marquette (L)
West Virginia (WTD)

Big Sky
Weber State (AB)

Big South
Winthrop (AB)

Big Ten
Ohio State (AB)
Wisconsin (L)
Illinois (L)
Michigan State (L)
Indiana (WTD)

Big 12
Kansas (AB)
Texas A&M (L)
Texas (L)
Kansas State (WTD)

Big West
Long Beach State (AB)

CAA
Virginia Commonwealth (AB)
Old Dominion (L)
Hofstra (WTD)

Conference USA
Memphis (AB)

Horizon
Butler (AB)

Ivy
Penn (AB)

MAAC
Marist (AB)

MAC
Akron (AB)
Kent State (WTD)

MCC
Oral Roberts (AB)

MEAC
Delaware State (AB)

MVC
Southern Illinois (AB)
Creighton (L)
Missouri State (L)

MWC
BYU (AB)
UNLV (L)
Air Force (L)
San Diego State (WTD)

NEC
Central Connecticut State (AB)

OVC
Austin Peay (AB)

PAC-10
UCLA (AB)
WSU (L)
USC (L)
Oregon (L)
Arizona (L)

Patriot
Holy Cross (AB)

SEC
Florida (AB)
Vanderbilt (L)
Tennessee (L)
Kentucky (L)
Ole Miss (WTD)
Alabama (WTD)

Southern
Davidson (AB)
Appalachian State (L)

Southland
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (AB)

SWAC
Mississippi Valley State (AB)

Sun Belt
South Alabama (AB)

West Coast Conference
Gonzaga (AB)

WAC
Nevada (AB)
New Mexico State (WTD)

After everything is said and done, that gives us 31 Automatic Bids, 28 Locks, and 9 teams with Work To Do. In my eyes, 59 teams are pretty much set in stone. That leaves 9 teams to battle it out for the final 6 spots, so here goes…

West Virginia is the most likely of the teams with work left to do to get in. They beat UCLA, which is a great win no matter how you slice it, but they have also lost to a number of teams at the bottom of the Big East. With a big game at Pittsburgh coming up, that would be more than enough to get them in the tournament.

Indiana has performed well under new coach Kelvin Sampson. However, they had better not slip up against Northwestern or Penn State down the stretch. If they win both and get to 10-6 in conference play, they should be in.

Kansas State has exceeded expectations without question. They just don’t have that signature win to hang their hats on. That being said, if they hadn’t beat Southern Cal and Texas they would be out without question. With Oklahoma State and Oklahoma still on the schedule, they could add 2 more solid wins to make their resume look a little better.

New Mexico State is the second best team in the WAC. The WAC is normally not a one-bid league. That being said, the Aggies haven’t given themselves any room for error. With the season finale at Nevada, there couldn’t be a better way to get a huge victory for their tournament hopes.

Ole Miss and Alabama fighting it out in the SEC West, it is perfect that they play each other this week. Ole Miss has beaten Alabama once this season, so beating them again would help their chances of getting in the tournament a great deal. At 6-8 in SEC play, the Crimson Tide has to win out and make a good showing in the SEC Tournament. Expect just one team to make the Big Dance from the SEC West.

Kent State has been a very good team over the last several years and this year is no different. However, they don’t have any marquee wins to brag about nor are they at the top of the MAC standings. That being said, it is very important for their tournament hopes to beat Akron in their meeting this week. It would put them over the 20-win mark and put them at the top of their division, which would help for seeding purposes in the MAC Tournament.

The last of the 9 teams is Hofstra. The Pride is a very talented team with outstanding guard play. I am a huge fan of Loren Stokes. However, this season has been a huge disappointment for them. They had lofty expectations at the beginning of the year, only to now be fighting for their postseason lives. If they can get hot in the CAA tourney, they have a shot of getting in. Even if they don’t win it, another win over Virginia Commonwealth, Old Dominion, or Drexel could speak volumes for their case at an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.

With virtually every angle covered, be sure to watch how these 9 teams do in the next week to get a solid handle on who is in and who is out. It should get interesting, that is the only thing that is certain. Of course, there is always a couple of teams that win their conference tourney and take away an at-large bid for one of the teams mentioned above. Someone like Wright State or Santa Clara comes to mind here. However, that is just part of what makes March Madness… well …madness.

(Be Sure To Check Out Part II Next Week!)

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February 26, 2007

 

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