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Jumpology: Bracket Breakdown Part III
By Ron Jumper

With the bracket all set and ready for action, the madness is virtually here. To say there isn’t a more exciting time in sports would be a drastic understatement. Where else do you have 3 weeks of meaningful games? The college bowl season is great and everything, but you can’t say you are just real excited the first two weeks that are full of bowls like Rice vs. Troy State and TCU vs. Northern Illinois. With March Madness, every game but the 1-16 matchups are exciting to watch, and even the 1-16 games typically have highlight worthy plays all over the court as a massacre takes place. However, this article isn’t going to be all happy-go-lucky, we have some serious hoops talk to get into.

First off, I have to tackle the Syracuse situation. I kept thinking about it and it was just blowing my mind how they didn’t get into the dance. The Orange had a 10-6 Big East record and had been playing well down the stretch. They did more than what is normally required to make it to the Big Dance. My only answer I can give is simple, the committee picked someone to make an example of what can happen to you if you don’t beef up your non-conference schedule. Their best non-conference wins are Holy Cross and Hofstra, which aren’t exactly impressive.

The Drexel Dragons have also been considered a team that was a big snub, but I have to disagree. Granted I love the CAA, Drexel was on the outside looking in when Wright State beat Butler in the Horizon League Championship. They were even farther out when New Mexico State took the WAC crown. Yes, they won some nice road games like Syracuse and Villanova, but they lost to Rider and Penn. They weren’t even dominant in the conference, posting a 1-5 record against VCU, ODU, and Hofstra. I’m sorry Drexel, but you weren’t snubbed.

One team that I liked to get in that was completely forgotten about was Appalachian State. They won at Virginia, at VCU, and at Vanderbilt. They also beat a respectable Wichita State team on Bracket Buster Saturday. This is a 25-7 team that wasn’t even on the bubble! I just hate that they aren’t even getting mentioned as a team that got snubbed or barely missed the cut. This is a good basketball team. Watch the NIT, you’ll see…

Now for the most criticized team in the field, the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Hogs were chewed up and down by Digger and Vitale. However, you had to laugh at Digger’s comparison to Kansas State because Arkansas was better in every comparison. Arkansas had a higher RPI, a tougher schedule, and more wins against the RPI Top 50. I was watching the show with a room full of friends and we all burst into laughter that he was actually using those numbers to make his argument for Kansas State. It would be like comparing Eva Longoria and Jessica Alba, but to make your argument for Alba you show a picture of her with no makeup in some baggy sweats while you show Longoria in a little bikini. I couldn’t help but lose even more respect for Digger, which is saying something considering this is the same guy who matches his tie with his highliter. Back to hoops talk, the Hogs played hot down the stretch and were rewarded for going out and playing people in the non-conference. They beat Southern Illinois, West Virginia, Marist, and Oral Roberts, as well as playing Texas to a 4-point game in Austin. I wouldn’t have been shocked had they not made it, but you can’t be angry they did.

Now that I’ve covered some individual teams that were in the midst of controversy, I have my own conspiracy. The committee only gave 6 teams from mid-major conferences at-large bids, which leads you to think they didn’t feel that strong about the mid-major conferences. Now look at your bracket, look closely, see it yet? The mid-majors are all paired against each other, look at Nevada-Creighton, Butler-Old Dominion, Southern Illinois-Holy Cross, and Xavier-BYU. The mid-majors have no choice but to be eliminated due to the fact they play each other, it was like the committee covered its tracks for not putting more small schools in the tournament. When people complain about them not getting in, they can say, “well the mid-majors didn’t perform very well in the tournament.” However, look closely and there is almost no way the mid-majors can have several teams go deep in the tournament unless some remarkable upsets happen.

On to my next conspiracy, the 5-12 games are designed to make the tournament more entertaining. Take the Butler-ODU matchup and Virginia Tech-Illinois matchup, why couldn’t they mix that up a little bit? Butler isn’t good enough to be a 5 seed and Old Dominion isn’t bad enough to be a 12 seed, while the same could be said about Virginia Tech and Illinois. However, the teams were put there to “encourage” upsets, if you will. I firmly believe the committee put the 5-12 matchups out there as they are with intent of increasing the likelihood of an upset. The lines don’t lie. Butler is at –1.5, Virginia Tech is at –2.5, USC is at –2, while Tennessee is at –8. Are you telling me that if a team is 7 seeds better they should only be a few points better than their opponent? That is absolutely crazy. A real 5-12 should have been something like Nevada vs. Wright State, where it would have to a legitimate upset for the Raiders to win. If ODU, Illinois, or Arkansas win I won’t really even be surprised.

Now for a few first round games to get excited about…

(7) UNLV vs. (10) Georgia Tech

The Runnin’ Rebels have flown under the radar all season long, none the less they are a very solid ball club. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has a great freshman that on any other year would be a candidate for National Freshman of the Year in Thadeus Young. Young has performed very well for the Yellow Jackets. Keep your eye on this one.

(6) Notre Dame vs. (11) Winthrop

The Eagles have only lost 4 games all season long. When you consider those 4 losses were to UNC, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Texas A&M, it is just down right impressive. For the Fighting Irish, I think their lack of athleticism could hurt them in this matchup, though they are the superior team. I expect this game to be close.

(7) Indiana vs. (10) Gonzaga

This is the kind of Zags team that we all fell in love with, they have no stars or future lottery picks. This team has a bunch of guys that play smart and together that could sneak up and beat someone in the tournament. If they do win, this would be Mark Few’s best coaching job as a head coach.

(8) Marquette vs. (9) Michigan State

As we all know, it is the matchup of head coach vs. former assistant. Beyond that, this game offers one of the best point guard matchups in the first round. Dominic James and Drew Neitzel will have to battle it out to move on.

(5) USC vs. (12) Arkansas

Both teams are coming off spankings in their conference championship game. However, the difference is USC lost to Oregon while Arkansas had to play the defending national champion Florida. Could it be an upset special?

(3) Washington State vs. (14) Oral Roberts

I’m not a big fan of Washington State, really I am struggling to buy into the hype of the PAC-10 this season in general. What stands out about this matchup is that Oral Roberts has the size to play with a “big conference” school. They aren’t going to be dominated inside, it is more likely it will actually be a strength in this game. This one could be closer than expected.

(7) Nevada vs. (10) Creighton

There is no way that Nevada is a 7 seed and Butler is a 5 seed. The same can be said about Creighton being a 10 seed, when Xavier and Purdue are 9 seeds. None the less, this should be a great matchup of mid-majors. I would have liked to have seen this game farther down the road, but that just isn’t the case.

(5) Butler vs. (12) Old Dominion

A great game to watch, this one could be one of the more exciting first round games due to the perfect matchups offered by both teams. These teams mirror each other in personnel, while they play contrasting styles with Butler being a half-court team and ODU being a more high-scoring team. It depends who can make the game go at their pace. I wouldn’t miss this game if I were you.

March 12, 2007

 

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Top Prospects 2009: Week 10

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    Jumpology: My Bracket

Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights

Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket

Jumpology: The Final Bracket