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Formula For Success 2007
By Ron Jumper

I have to say I am pumped up about the NBA postseason. It doesn’t get enough publicity as being an exciting time in sports. Just think, for the next few weeks there are double-headers every night! On the weekends, like this Saturday and Sunday, you get a quadruple-header both days! How crazy is that? For hoops and gambling junkies alike, it is a pretty exciting time. For handicappers like me, who don’t do baseball and never will, it is the last significant sporting event of the season so finishing on a high note is of the utmost importance.

(I have to mention the Golden State Warriors. At the beginning of the season, there was a lot of skepticism about the hire of Don Nelson and how that would work. On the other hand, yours truly picked the Warriors to make the playoffs from the beginning of the season and stuck with that pick all the way through. I just felt the urge to point that out to everyone.)

As I did last year, I compiled the regular season statistics and used them to see who the NBA Champion would be. It led me to predict that Dallas and Miami would play each other in the NBA Finals, which came true. Will this year’s statistical breakdown offer a repeat performance? Only time will tell…

In my preview article before the season began, I picked a rematch of the NBA Finals but I had the Mavericks holding the championship trophy this time around instead of the Heat. Let’s see if the numbers give me the same result.

I’m going to go step by step to find this year’s NBA Finals matchup.

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1. Two 20-point Scorers or Three 15-point Scorers or Four 12-point Scorers

This is a pretty easy requirement, it basically just means you don’t rely too much on one guy. I was still surprised that 10 of the 16 playoff teams made the cut, including 7 of the 8 Western Conference teams.

West:
Dallas
Phoenix
San Antonio
Utah
Houston
Denver
Golden State

East:
Detroit
Chicago
Orlando

Missed The Cut:
Lakers
Cleveland
Toronto
Miami
New Jersey
Washington

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2. Have A Player Make 100 3-pointers While Shooting At Least 40% From Downtown

Having this as a requirement shows that teams have the ability to stretch the defense, making them harder to gameplan for. A player shooting 40% is consistent, making it less likely to have a cold night. This starts to narrow it down a little bit, especially in the East. There were 6 teams that made the cut, but only the Bulls survived in the East. This leaves 5 teams to battle it out in the next round for the West’s bid to the NBA Finals. The Warriors are the surprise team so far by a long shot, as they are hanging tough in the second round.

West:
Dallas (Jason Terry)
Phoenix (Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell)
San Antonio (Brent Barry)
Houston (Luther Head, Shane Battier)
Golden State (Al Harrington)

East:
Chicago (Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich)

Missed The Cut:
Denver
Utah
Detroit
Orlando

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3. Play Defense

For this round, I looked at 5 categories: Opponent FG%, Blocks, Steals, Opponents PPG, Turnover Differential. I ranked the six teams 1-6 in each category, giving a team 6 points for being the best and 1 point to the worst team in each category. The scores were as follows:

Chicago:
23

San Antonio:
20

Golden State:
20

Dallas:
16

Houston:
16

Phoenix
10

So as you see the Bulls are the winner, with the Spurs and Warriors tied for second. To break the tie, I’m going to take the common sense factor here. I have to go with the Spurs, though it should be noted how far the Warriors have come. Basically, it was too little too late for Golden State this season. If they had the roster they have now at the start of the season it might be a different story. Regardless, they are in great position to make a run in 07/08.

If you go by the numbers, Chicago and San Antonio will take each other on in the NBA Finals. I can’t say this is how I saw the numbers working out but it is intriguing none-the-less, right? They say the numbers don’t lie, but in given time I guess we will find out.

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April 21, 2007

 

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