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NBA Quarterly Report
By Ron Jumper

With the NBA season getting underway, I felt it was time to discuss how things are begginning to unfold thus far. I always wait until at least the 20-game mark until I put any real weight into records and standings. Were you really expecting the Bobcats and Clippers to keep up above .500? I didn't think so. Did you really think the Warriors would be as bad they started out the gate this season? Well, you might have, but you were wrong. Anyways, time to address the NBA today as we have passed the first quarter. With no further adu, The Quarterly Report:


Are The Hornets For Real In The West?

I say yes. MVP candidate? Chris Paul. Go-to scorer inside? David West. Shot blocker? Tyson Chandler. Outside shooting? Peja and Mo-Pete. Sparkplugs off the bench? Jannero Pargo, Bobby Jackson and Rasual Butler. Tyson Chandler has emerged as a better player than Ben Wallace and he is much younger. Why is that relevant? Well, I bet there are some Bulls fans who aren't the happiest right now with all that money tied up in Ben Wallace. I proudly want to remind everyone that I have been proclaiming this would happen all along. The Bulls basically spent an extra $40 million for around 4 extra rebounds a game. With Wallace getting older and Chandler hitting his prime, giving up P.J. Brown for Chandler's services seems like the steal of the century for New Orleans.

Anyways, the real x-factor once these teams reach the playoffs is Mo-Pete and Peja. Both have shown flashes of brilliance and inconsistency, as well as time on the injured list. No one goes from scoring 25 to only 4 the next night like Peja can, it leaves Hornets backers bewildered at times. If those two can be at full strength in May, I love the Hornets chances of advancing past the first round. At this point, you're looking at a possible Hornets-Mavs first round matchup as the 4 and 5 seeds. The Hornets have had success against Dallas already this season and match up really well with the Mavs. The Mavericks struggle against teams with athletic bigs, like a David West, that can shoot jumpshots (remember the Warriors in the playoffs last season), as the "D" in Dirk are the only parralels between the avid Hassellhoff fan and stopping the opposition. Now, Dirk has gotten a lot better defensively and will hit the glass from time to time, but not at a championship level. It isn't all Dirk's fault though, Dampier and Diop are serviceable at best, and provide no offense whatsoever so all the pressure falls to Dirk to generate offense from the inside. The scary matchup though is if Peja has to try to go toe-to-toe with Josh Howard. That doesn't bode well for Hornet's fans. None the less, I hope these teams face each other in May.


Can The Celtics Keep Up This Pace?

I don't think so. I see injuries in their future. Ray Allen and Paul Pierce have been injury-prone in the past and are playing heavy minutes night after night. I fully expect at least a minor injury or two and, most likely, Allen has to miss 10-15 games because of his awful ankles. Besides, as we saw against Detroit last Wednesday night, there is still Doc Rivers at the helm. In close games against the elite teams (they still haven't gone West yet), the true colors of Doc Rivers will shine through. Why in the world would you put in an ice-cold Tony Allen to guard Billups in that situation? This is the guy that tried to be cute and blew out his knee because he tried a reverse jam after the whistle had blown. I like Allen's game, but savvy isn't in his arsenal. With it being the holdays, let's just say he isn't the brightest light on the Christmas tree. But hey, at least Scalabrine didn't get his usual minutes. I will give Rivers some credit, he has tried his hardest to just let the 3 stars do their thing and just stay out of the way. However, it may not be enough in the end. I could see Detroit being that thorn in the Celtics side over the next 2 or 3 years because they just seem to matchup with them so perfectly.

To elaborate, the Pistons get points from all 5 guys in their starting lineups and that means all 5 Celtics have to play defense. When you get so much of your scoring from "The Big Three," it is asking a lot for them to defend at a high level as well. Ray Allen is a jumpshooter, so it becomes tough to get that jumpshot off in the 4th quarter when you've been chasing Rip Hamilton off screens the entire night. As for Garnett, all of the Pistons big men can shoot jumpshots (except maybe Maxiel off the bench) so Garnett has to be out on shooters and not just sit back in the lane. Prince made it rough on Pierce in their first meeting, holding him well below his season average in points. The Celtics, at the very least, need Pierce to win this matchup with Prince to have any chance to beat them in a 7-game series. Lastly, the Pistons bench is far superior. Jarvis Hayes, Aaron Afflalo, Jason Maxiel, Flip Murray, and Lindsey Hunter (not to mention the injured Rodney Stuckey) provide much more than Eddie House, Tony Allen, and James Posey provide the Celtics.


What is wrong with the Houston Rockets and New Jersey Nets?

I bet John Hollinger isn't feeling so hot right now, as he picked this Rockets club to cut down the nets. I look at this roster and just get the feeling it is a bit bloated. There is no need to have Steve Francis, Luther Head, Mike James, Rafer Alston, and Aaron Brooks all their in the backcourt when T-MAC is going to play 40 minutes a night. That is especially true when you consider this team is paper thin on the frontline, as Chuck Hayes and Dikembe Mutumbo are the only "bigs" behind Yao inside.

The Nets put themselves in this situation, as they added all the pieces that are causing the problems. The Nets are at their best when they get out and run because J-Kidd finds open guys in transition, so shouldn't you add guys that complement that style? One would think, but the Nets cut a budding young guy that fit (Hassan Adams) to blow millions of dollars on a guy that doesn't even make sense on any level (Jamal Magloire). If I'm Lawrence Frank, I'm putting Josh Boone and Sean Williams in my frontcourt along with the Nets version of "The Big Three" and run as much as possible. Here is one problem that isn't the Nets' fault, and that is the injury of Marcus Williams. Williams could keep the tempo up or come on the floor with Kidd to really speed things up, so that isn't their fault that he is injured. However, knowing he was going to miss the first quarter of the season, you could have gone out and added another backup point guard that fits the system. However, they go out and get Darrel Armstrong, who is just a few years away from a wheelchair. Everything is there for the Nets, it is just going to take Lawrence Frank putting the pieces in the right place before it is too late.

Hmm... I think it is time to hit up Trade Checker, folks! Whether it be at RealGM.com (home of the original Trade Checker software) or ESPN.com (home of the best copycats money can buy), this is an issue that only Trade Checker can solve so without further adu:

(Real GM.com Trade ID #4363438)
Nets Receive:
SG Luther Head
SG/SF Kirk Snyder
PG/SG Steve Francis

Rockets Receive:
PF/C Nenad Krstic
C Jamal Magloire

I think this helps both teams get better, a lot better. The Rockets have addition by substraction. They can focus all the backcourt minutes towards Mike James, Rafer Alston, Tracy McGrady, Bonzi Wells, and even the rookie Aaron Brooks. With the addition of Krstic and Magloire, they now have big bodies that can provide scoring. The Rockets other big men, like Hayes and Mutumbo, don't score points and make it easier for opponents to guard T-MAC and Yao.

As for the Nets, they now can pack a punch on offense and spread the floor with shooters. Since this is the East, there is no reason not to go small and play with Jefferson or Nachbar at the power forward position. If the Nets do that, they can insert Luther Head or Steve Francis as the additional guard. Normally, I would say this is too many scorers on the floor but Jason Kidd doesn't mind not taking shots and the neither Josh Boone nor Sean Williams would demand a lot of post touches. This would lead to Carter, Jefferson, and the additional guard getting all the touches they want and being able to play at the Nets desired pace. If they need to slow the game down in the 4th, simply going to a more traditional lineup of Williams and Boone with "The Big Three" seems like it would be productive.


How can Scott Skiles be to blame for the Bulls slow starts?

He simply shouldn't have been the guy they chose to hang. Apparently, it was Skiles' fault that the front office couldn't get Ben Gordon and Luol Deng signed to extensions. Apparently, it was Skiles' fault that they couldn't get a deal done for Kobe, Gasol, or Jermaine O'Neal. With all the uncertainty of players and the trade rumors floating around, what did you really expect to happen? It is just unfathomable that this should be blamed on Skiles. After all, the Bulls were just awful when he became coach and he has turned them into a contender over time.

Did anyone stop to wonder why those trade rumors never came to fruition? Maybe Ben Gordon and Luol Deng aren't good enough to be traded for the likes of another All-Star in return. Granted, they fit Chicago's style perfectly but I don't know if those guys are on the same level as some of the other premiere wing players. Do you think the Rockets would listen if the Bulls wanted to swap Gordon for T-MAC? Nope. How about Deng for Rashard Lewis down in Orlando? Not a chance. The Bulls don't want to part with both players, but individually they don't warrant an All-Star in return. Also, it wasn't Skiles that handicapped this roster with Ben Wallace's contract. I don't think the Bulls should have fired him but, at the very least, they could have not fired him on Christmas Eve. What a shame...

December 25, 2007

 

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