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Jumpology: Bracket Breakdown, Part I By Ron Jumper Now that BracketBuster Saturday is complete, it is time to take a close look at how the NCAA Tournament is shaking up. BracketBuster Saturday was the last chance for mid-majors to get a quality win outside of their own conference. For the big schools, it is important for teams with a conference record of 7-6 or 6-7 to finish strong to insure a place in March Madness. As for how I’m breaking it down, I’m going to take a stab at who will get the 31 automatic bids first. Obviously, this won’t be exact because there are always going to be teams that get hot in their conference tournaments but it will give me a base to start with. Second, I’m going to figure out what teams have already done enough to make it to the Big Dance to see how many at-large bids are still up for grabs. Last, I’m looking at what teams still have a shot at grabbing an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch. Here goes nothing: Grid: ** = Automatic Bid AL = At-Large Locks ? = Bubble Watch America East Conference: -UMBC** Atlantic 10: -Xavier** -St. Joe’s? -UMass? ACC: -UNC** -Duke AL -Clemson AL -Miami (FL)? -Maryland? -Wake Forest? Atlantic Sun: -Belmont** Big 12: -Kansas** -Texas AL -Kansas State AL -Texas A&M? -Baylor? -Oklahoma? Big East: -Georgetown** -Louisville AL -Notre Dame AL -UConn AL -Marquette AL -Pitt? -West Virginia? -Cincinnati? -Villanova? -Syracuse? Big Sky: -Portland State** Big South: -Winthrop** Big Ten: -Wisconsin** -Purdue AL -Indiana AL -Michigan State AL -Ohio State? Big West: -Cal State Northridge** CAA: -VCU** -George Mason? C-USA: -Memphis** -UAB? -Houston? Horizon: -Butler** -Wright State? Ivy League: -Cornell** MAAC: -Niagara** MAC: -Kent State** MEAC: -Morgan State** MVC: -Drake** -Illinois State? -Southern Illinois? -Creighton? Mountain West: -BYU** -UNLV? -New Mexico? Northeast Conference: -Robert Morris** Ohio Valley: -Austin Peay** Pac-10: -UCLA** -Stanford AL -Washington State AL -USC? -Arizona State? -Arizona? Patriot League: -American** SEC: -Tennessee** -Vanderbilt AL -Mississippi State AL -Arkansas? -Kentucky? -Florida? Southern Conference: -Davidson** Southland Conference: -Lamar** SWAC: -Alabama State** Summit League: -Oral Roberts** Sun Belt: -South Alabama** -Western Kentucky? West Coast Conference: -St. Mary’s** -Gonzaga AL WAC: -Boise State** Automatic Bids: 31 At-Large Locks: 16 Bubble Watch: 30 With 47 teams (31 automatic bids and 16 at-large locks) looking to have done enough to be in the field, that leaves 18 more spots up for grabs. Now, here is the problem: I have 30 teams fighting for those spots! How are we going to break this down? I think it is best to start with the “High Majors” first and look at their conference records: Maryland (7-6 ACC) Miami (6-6 ACC) Wake Forest (6-6 ACC) Texas A&M (6-6 Big 12) Baylor (6-6 Big 12) Oklahoma (6-6 Big 12) Pitt (7-7 Big East) West Virginia (8-6 Big East) Villanova (7-7 Big East) Syracuse (7-8 Big East) Cincinnati (8-6 Big East) Ohio State (8-6 Big Ten) Arizona (7-7 Pac-10) Arizona State (7-7 Pac-10) USC (8-6 Pac-10) Arkansas (7-5 SEC) Florida (7-5 SEC) Kentucky (9-3 SEC) When discussing bubble teams, I look at several things: road wins, a “signature” win, bad losses, and strength of schedule. However, there is also the “common sense” factor. For example, even though Ohio State is 8-6 in the Big Ten and has solid wins over Florida and Syracuse, I just can’t help but feel like Pitt would be more deserving of an at-large bid. Putting the résumés to the side, Pitt is just a better team and has a better chance of advancing in March. Having a big win goes a long way, but having an embarrassing loss puts you back just as much. As much as I like Maryland winning at UNC, it is equally damaging that they lost at home to both American and Ohio. You can also look at Wake Forest the same way, as they won against Duke but lost to Boston College by a whopping 39 points. The Demon Deacons also lost to Charlotte and Georgia. Another tough call for the committee is what in the world they should do with Kentucky and Cincinnati. Both were atrocious in their non-conference, but are now doing very well in league play. Will the committee reward them for getting things turned around? Or will they be punished for not doing enough outside of their conference? I think it is important for the committee to stay consistent and be careful here. If they let one of these 2 teams in, what does that say about them punishing Syracuse last season for not doing enough in their non-conference? Don’t forget the Orangemen won 10 games in Big East play yet weren’t invited to the Big Dance. At the same time, how does it make sense to let a team in that played all the same teams but won less of them than either Kentucky or Cincy because they played better in non-conference? You have to keep in mind that conference record is a great way to compare teams in the same conference because they play all the same teams. How can you really know who is better by comparing teams whose non-conference schedule is mixed up of teams from all over and all levels of talent? Take 7-5 SEC teams like Arkansas and Florida, both of which have better non-conference wins, how does it make sense that Kentucky has a better conference record at 9-3? What should the committee place a higher value on? Issues like these are where it gets tough for the committee. What should the committee do about teams that got hot down the stretch after playing poorly for a part of the season due to various reasons? A team to look at is Pittsburgh, as they would likely have a much better record if they hadn’t suffered injuries frequently throughout the season. How much of that will be taken into consideration on Selection Sunday? Fortunately for me, a lot of these teams will make or break their chances because they play one another in the next couple of weeks. Maryland and Wake Forest play one another. Texas A&M plays both Oklahoma and Baylor. Florida and Kentucky will face-off in Rupp Arena in their season finales. Pretty much all the bubble teams in both the Big East and Pac-10 are going to beat themselves up in the next two weeks. The teams that lose these games will most likely be on the outside looking in during Selection Sunday. Now for the little guys, we have a nice collection of “mid-majors” that could play their way into the final field of 65. In my opinion, there are 19 Mid-Majors that could get an at-large bid even if they don’t win their conference tournament. The important thing is that teams like Butler, Davidson, Drake, Kent State, Memphis, VCU, and Xavier win their conference tournaments because they will most likely receive an at-large bid if they don’t get the automatic bid, while it isn’t certain anyone else in their leagues will be getting an at-large bid. There are plenty of teams in those conferences that could jump up and win their conference tournaments, despite not having a shot at getting an at-large bid. Someone like Cleveland State (Horizon), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Akron or Ohio (MAC), or maybe UNC-Greensboro (Southern) could eliminate the amount of bids left for at-large teams. It happens every year, so don’t expect this year to be any different. Looking at the A-10, this is such a jumbled up conference. After Xavier and St. Joes, I’m not sure what to think of the rest of the pack. I loved Rhode Island all year, but they have really hurt themselves by losing 4 games in a row. They had 3 straight home games against Xavier, UMass, and St. Joes so it appeared they would make a statement to the committee. However, they lost all three home games and find themselves on the outside looking in (which I guess is a different kind of statement if you think about it). I’m really not that sold on UMass either, as they really haven’t done much to impress me. I think the Minutemen need to win their final 3 games and play well in the A-10 tourney to have a shot at getting in. I can’t help but think Conference USA isn’t as bad as everyone says. We know about Memphis, but UAB and Houston aren’t bad teams either. Both have done solid jobs in the non-conference and in C-USA play. Houston has played well, as potentially all 5 teams they lost to are in the mix to make the NCAA tournament (VCU, Arizona, UMass, Memphis, and UAB). However, they don’t have any big wins. The best wins they have are Kentucky, @Marist, and UTEP. They need to win their last 4 games and perform well in the conference tournament to have a shot, as it is tough to leave a team out with 24 or 25 wins if they can finish strong down the stretch. As for UAB, they are in a very similar position because they have no big wins either, just decent ones over Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Old Dominion. The Blazers schedule presented them with chances to get nice wins, but they lost to Florida State, Rhode Island, and South Florida. They also dropped 2 conference games against Marshall and Southern Miss that they shouldn’t have. I think both teams are a case of being a good basketball team and deserving of a chance, but they dropped a couple of games they shouldn’t have that will probably keep them out. If they played someone like Villanova or Arizona State on a neutral floor, it would be a hard fought game. However, selling the committee of that is a whole different story. Another conference that will be hard to determine how many bids they should get is the Missouri Valley Conference. While outside of Drake, no one has an at-large bid locked up. That doesn’t mean they don’t have good teams in their league. Look at this weekend, they went 8-2 against teams outside their conference. Drake won at Butler, Southern Illinois won by 25 over Nevada, Illinois State won convincingly over a hot Wright State squad, and even Creighton won at Oral Roberts. While they might not have the sexiest résumés, they are all 4 very good basketball teams and it showed Saturday. Southern Illinois had a stretch where they really struggled, but they do have wins over Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, and Western Kentucky. Illinois State also really impressed me Sunday, as they can do a little bit of everything. The Redbirds have great athletes and size to be a scary matchup in the NCAA Tournament. They didn’t play a tough non-conference schedule, as they only have wins over Cincinnati, UNC-Wilmington, and now Wright State so they aren’t going to wow the committee with big wins. They also lost both games against Drake, but they stayed within 6 or better both games so at least they competed with the Bulldogs. I think the winner of the season finale between Southern Illinois and Illinois State should get a hard look at an at-large bid, especially if neither team loses between now and then. I’ll be keeping an eye on what goes down in The Valley. The last conference of real interest is the Mountain West. BYU is the class of the league, but New Mexico and UNLV aren’t bad. I would like to think all three will make the field, but I can say with certainty that at least 2 of the 3 will be dancing. New Mexico has BYU at home this week, so they can get another quality win before the regular season is over. UNLV is a very good team, despite not having a great “signature” win in the non-conference to speak of. They did spank BYU by 29 at home in January. The Rebels have a tough last 4 games so, if they can win them all, it should be enough to get them into the tournament because they would have 24 wins. I’ll be following up on all the action at the end of the regular season. Hopefully, things will start to get a little bit clearer by that time. While that is wishful thinking, I’m sure the next installment of Jumpology will be just as confusing so just sit back, relax, and get ready for March Madness. February 25, 2008 |
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Be Careful What You Wish For
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Jumpology: My Bracket Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket
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