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Fantasy Football 2008: Week 6
By Ric Atkinson

Hard to believe we’re one third of the way through the fantasy season already. Some unexpected trends have been established, some of which are really good and some of which are really bad. The question now becomes: will they continue? If you know the answers, you can adjust your rosters accordingly. Let us take a look:


Unexpected Trend #1:
LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t among the ten highest fantasy-scoring running backs. Check this out. Stats for the first five games of the season:

2006 - 396 rushing yards, 83 receiving yards, 3 TDs
2007 – 329 rushing yards, 194 receiving yards, 3 TDs
2008 – 331 rushing yards, 80 receiving yards, 4 TDs

Yards are down a bit, but TDs are actually up. If you own him don’t panic. If you don’t own him, I see him as the ultimate buy low player right now, but I also would pickup Darren Sproles as a handcuff for LT in case the toe doesn’t heal.


Unexpected Trend #2:
The Colts and the Patriots are both having trouble scoring points. Something is wrong in Indy. They are averaging 20.8 points per game (same as the Texans). I’m not convinced Peyton Manning is 100% healthy. I also have some real concerns about the O-line. I look for some improvement in Indy, but I don’t think they will meet preseason expectations.

The Patriots problem is more obvious: no Tom Brady. Well that and they might be finding it harder to score if you don’t have your opponent’s defensive signals on videotape. I’m not very high on any of the New England players right now. I’d be shopping Moss and Welker if I owned them.


Unexpected Trend #3:
The New York Giants are the NFL’s top rated offense. No doubt the Giant offense is solid, but they have faced three of the league’s worst teams in the Rams, Bengals, and Seahawks. The schedule gets much, much tougher starting in week 8 so look for the Giants offense to come back to earth in the 2nd half of the season.


Unexpected Trend #4:
The Cleveland Browns are last in the league in total offense. The Browns have looked down right awful. They have played a pretty tough schedule so far, but they have a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way also. I look for a QB change in the near future. I’m giving up on all Cleveland players. If Quinn takes the reigns and rejuvenates this offense, maybe there is some hope.


Unexpected Trend #5:
So far Roy Williams has been a huge fantasy disappointment. And if things don’t change he will continue to be the rest of the season. The good news for Williams’ owners is that change may be coming. There is lots of talk about a trade that would send Williams to the 49ers. This should be a good fit since Roy has had great success in Mike Martz system, and some experience playing with JT O’Sullivan.


Unexpected Trend #6:
This is the year of the rookie running back by what has happened so far this season. However, can they keep up this pace? Matt Forte is a flat out Fantasy Stud so far, but his yards are dipping. He started out at 123, but has gone down each week: 92, 89, 43, 36. He has been a great receiver and has 4 total touchdowns, but is that going to be enough for the entire season to keep him at this level if the yardage keeps slipping? The same can be said for Chris Johnson, as his yardage in the last four games has gradually gone down (109, 74, 61, 44). With Johnson, he doesn’t get the bulk of the goalline carries so can he be prolific without scores? His yardage doesn’t suggest so.

The big surprise is Steve Slaton, as he has been phenomenal in his last 3 games (55 fantasy points). If he keeps up that rate and everyone else stays on their current pace, he would be battling Michael Turner for the top spot at his position. My guess is he will come down to earth somewhat, however, he still has great value because it doesn’t take as much acquire him in a trade as it would other top fantasy backs. He is someone you can go out and get right now without giving up an elite player in return. **Remember, public perception and name recognition play a huge part in fantasy trades.**


Unexpected Trend #7:
The Jaguars dynamic duo of Jones-Drew and Taylor has been bad so far. While they should play better when the matchup is favorable, the interior of that offensive line is banged up. Because of this, they are starting to take on a new identity and not trying to dominate you between the tackles as they did last season. That being said, don’t give away either back but don’t expect them to give you big numbers on a consistent basis. The flex spot seems to be about as much as you should be relying on either back.


This Week’s Best Matchups:
Ronnie Brown @ Houston
Clinton Portis and every other Redskin vs the Rams
Thomas Jones, Brett Farve and the Jets D/ST vs the Bengals
Adrian Peterson, Vikings D/ST and Bernard Berrian vs the Lions
All the Cowboys @ Arizona
All the Cardinals vs Dallas
All the Giants @ Cleveland
Ryan Grant vs Seattle


Sleeper of the Week:
Correll Buckhalter RB Philadelphia

Brian Westbrook needs some rest. Sprained ankles and broken ribs need time to heal. With the Eagles bye week coming up in week 7 they can give him 20 days of rest at the expense of missing one game. Look for Buckhalter to step into Westbrook’s role and have a great game against the 49ers.


Let’s look at this week mailbag:

Leo in Portland asked:
“Is Jason Campbell a top fantasy option at QB now?”


No doubt he is playing extraordinarily well right now. Zero turnovers, six touchdowns, and right at 200 passing yards per game is just what the Redskins need from him. He’s not quite an elite fantasy QB yet, but when the matchups are right he’ll give you the numbers you need from your QB spot, such as St. Louis this week.


Thomas in Miami sent this one in:
“Will Frank Gore keep producing like he has so far?”


So far this season he has proven to be Mr. Consistency so far this season. I really look for that trend to continue. The 49ers have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way, and Gore gets his points in both the passing and rushing game. He looks like a start every week stud for the rest of the season.


Please send me your questions for next week and I’ll be sure to answer them right here.

Well that’s it for this week. Good luck and remember: Always start your studs.

October 10, 2008

 

    NCAA Football
    Be Careful What You Wish For

Top Prospects 2009: Week 10

Top Prospects 2009: Week 9

Top Prospects 2009: Week 7

 

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    Jumpology: My Bracket

Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights

Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket

Jumpology: The Final Bracket