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Fantasy Football 2008: Week 11
Let’s Crunch Some More Numbers
By Ric Atkinson

Last week, we looked at the stats for fantasy points allowed by teams to Quarterbacks and Tightends. This week, we’re going to look at the same stats for Running Backs and Wide Receivers. Take a close look at the numbers and you will notice patterns and trends that can help you make the best choices every week for your fantasy team. Some of the numbers make good solid football sense, while others help you understand why it is “fantasy” football. Enough talk, look for yourself.

Teams that have allowed the most fantasy points to Running Backs so far this season:
1. Kansas City Chiefs (29 fantasy points per week)
2. St. Louis Rams (27.9 fantasy points per week)
3. Denver Broncos (25.9 fantasy points per week)
4. Oakland Raiders (24.4 fantasy points per week)
5. Detroit Lions (23.1 fantasy points per week)
6. Houston Texans (23.1 fantasy points per week)
7. Indianapolis Colts (23.0 fantasy points per week)
8. Green Bay Packers (22.9 fantasy points per week)
9. San Francisco 49ers (21.3 fantasy points per week)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (20.6 fantasy points per week)


Teams that have allowed the fewest fantasy points to Running Banks so far this season:
1. Baltimore Ravens (8.9 fantasy points per week)
2. New York Giants (10.7 fantasy points per week)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (11.2 fantasy points per week)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12.2 fantasy points per week)
5. Carolina Panthers (13.3 fantasy points per week)
6. Washington Redskins (13.3 fantasy points per week)
7. New England Patriots (13.3 fantasy points per week)
8. New York Jets (13.6 fantasy points per week)
9. Arizona Cardinals (13.7 fantasy points per week)
10. Minnesota Vikings (13.8 fantasy points per week)


Not a lot that’s surprising here. Bad teams can’t stop the run. Good teams can. The Ravens are death to opposing running backs. They have gone 28 straight games without giving up 100 yards to an opposing running back. I do think Bob Sander’s return will improve the Colts run defense. Look for them to drop off the worst 10 list in the next few weeks. There is also a correlation between scoring margin and RB points allowed, the Bengals, Lions, and Rams are always behind so teams grind away on the ground in the second half. Teams like the Giants, Redskins, Panthers, and Cardinals are usually ahead so the opponent starts airing it out to catch up. Three of those four teams (excluding Washington) allow towards the bottom in yards per carry and they all are in the back half of rush attempts against. To put it simply, running backs have to have opportunities to be successful.


Teams that have allowed the most fantasy points to Wide Receivers so far this season:
1. Detroit Lions (23.3 fantasy points per week)
2. Arizona Cardinals (23.0 fantasy points per week)
3. Cleveland Browns (22.8 fantasy points per week)
4. Miami Dolphins (22.4 fantasy points per week)
5. Seattle Seahawks (22.4 fantasy points per week)
6. Chicago Bears (22.1 fantasy points per week)
7. San Francisco 49ers (21.9 fantasy points per week)
8. New England Patriots (21.0 fantasy points per week)
9. New York Giants (20.8 fantasy points per week)
10. St. Louis Rams (20.7 fantasy points per week)


Teams that have allowed the fewest fantasy points to Wide Receivers so far this season:
1. Indianapolis Colts (9.7 fantasy points per week)
2. Tennessee Titans (11.0 fantasy points per week)
3. Carolina Panthers (12.8 fantasy points per week)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (13.2 fantasy points per week)
5. Green Bay Packers (13.9 fantasy points per week)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (15.1 fantasy points per week)
7. New York Jets (15.8 fantasy points per week)
8. Oakland Raiders (16.7 fantasy points per week)
9. Baltimore Ravens (16.7 fantasy points per week)
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (17.3 fantasy points per week)

Pretty surprising to see the Patriots and Bears on the list of teams that give up the most points. Looking at the teams on the fewest points allowed list, it appears that a strong pass rush is the key to stopping wide receivers (Steelers, Eagles, Ravens). The other way to slow down wide receivers is to take away the big play. Tampa Bay and Indy both have Cover 2 principles that make it hard to get open deep, limiting the explosive play and forcing the QB to check down to a running back or tight end.

So what do those numbers mean this week? Look for big games this week from:
Frank Gore
Michael Turner
Ronnie Brown
Steve Slaton
Lee Evans
Steve Smith
Anquan Boldin
Larry Fitzgerld
Greg Jennings.

Look for these guys to have sub-par weeks:
Andre Johnson
Matt Jones
Calvin Johnson
Bernard Berrian
Plaxico Burress
Ladainian Tomlinson
Brandon Jacobs


Sleeper of the week:
Deuce McAllister

Even if Reggie Bush is back this week, the match up against the Chiefs run defense is too good to pass up. If Bush doesn’t play look for huge numbers from Deuce. If Bush does play look for solid numbers from both of the Saints running backs. The Saints should put up great fantasy points across the board, as Colston seems back to full speed as well.


Lets wrap this week up with two more stats:

Team that gives up the most fantasy points to a kicker:
San Francisco 49ers (great news for Josh Brown owners)

Team that gives up the fewest fantasy points to a kicker:
Tennessee Titans (bad news for Josh Scobee owners)

That’s it for this week. Good luck and remember: Always start you studs.

November 14, 2008

 

    NCAA Football
    Be Careful What You Wish For

Top Prospects 2009: Week 10

Top Prospects 2009: Week 9

Top Prospects 2009: Week 7

 

    NCAA Basketball
    Jumpology: My Bracket

Jumpology: Scouting The Heavyweights

Jumpology: Reviewing The Bracket

Jumpology: The Final Bracket